1) If the forage for the salmon really is low like the DEC is claiming, then the returning fish (for however long it takes for the alewives to recover) will continually be lame. This coupled with a 20% reduction in stocking efforts will only compile the shortage of fish in the short term.
2) Water flows in the streams early this fall were a little low but not abnormal. However now that we have had some rain the flows have bumped up a bit in addition to there being some water being drained from the canal while under construction. That being said there has been more than enough water in the streams to supplement fish movement.
3) Fishing the lake over this past summer in the western basin I saw no real signs of a solid population of salmon whether it be immature or mature fish.
All that being said I see no reason to believe that the conditions are right to have the tributaries of Lake Ontario host a large run of king salmon or any salmonids for that matter. I don't like thinking that the glory days of salmon fishing here in Lake Ontario are over for the time being but things don't just change overnight. Despite being prepared for another unsatisfying fall run it is still early and I could be wrong about the prospects of a strong run of fish. So now that the discouraging report is out of the way I can talk about what IS good about whats going on right now in fishing. So far as mentioned above there is no serious concertrations of fish anywhere in the region. Here in WNY the only stream that has any real concentration of fish is at the dam on Oak Orchard. If you don't mind being shoulder to shoulder with the guy next to you getting his line tangled in yours and vise versa then this is the place for you. Despite this being the place with the most fish there still are maybe only 35 fish at the dam with trickling fish coming in every day. Other area streams like 18 Mile Creek and Sandy Creek don't have much in the way of fish yet. Last weekend (at Sandy) I saw a couple fish moving up the lower reaches of the stream on the kamikaze mission to spawning grounds at first light. The fish that are in Sandy so far are spread WAY out. If you fish here expect to walk a long way before finding any fish. As for 18 Mile, there have been a few fish spotted at the dam but to my knowledge no fish have been caught yet. Fishing action on the piers of 18 Mile and Oak Orchard is pretty spotty still with only around 15-20 fish being caught in a day by persistent anglers. The pressure on the piers is pretty high as well so expect some company.
I know it's not the report I'd like to be giving but it's the truth none the less. Hopefully the run picks up and there are fish to be had and anglers can go home satisfied. But in the mean time I always encourage people to check out my YouTube channel with videos to entertain and potentially learn a little something about fly fishing. Also for those of you who don't know much about fly fishing or fishing the tributaries I am a NYS Licensed Guide and have dates open this fall for Salmon, Brown Trout, and Steelhead. If you are interested in booking a trip send me an email at wnyflyguy@gmail.com. Thanks again for reading and keep your lines tight!
Current Stream Information:
18-Mile Creek (Burt): October 2nd, 2016
Light fishing pressure
Med flows
Light fishing pressure
Med flows
67 CFS
Cattaraugus Creek: October 2nd, 2016
Low Clear Flows
126 CFS
57.4 - 68.4
57.4 - 68.4
Oak Orchard Creek: October 2nd, 2016
Light Fishing Pressure
Med/Clear Flows
Light Fishing Pressure
Med/Clear Flows
0.56 CFS
Salmon River: October 2nd, 2016
273 CFS
YouTube Link: New videos coming soon!!!
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHV4wVbpaexeCK7aug549YQ
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